Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 8.566059 10.099828 11.787346 13.776110 16.049808 18.561997 21.541429
2025-01-26 6.693705 8.786193 11.301344 14.523084 18.513631 23.265707 29.321383
2025-02-02 5.452981 7.828934 10.900638 15.108322 20.659302 27.662362 37.084609
2025-02-09 4.632646 7.185033 10.695820 15.782010 22.847875 32.186611 45.305204
2025-02-16 3.824949 6.376396 10.092866 15.758388 24.001803 35.353548 51.910966
2025-02-23 3.091100 5.525463 9.271123 15.261725 24.360670 37.371025 57.005619
2025-03-02 2.493203 4.769149 8.460377 14.638260 24.405824 38.865944 61.378976
2025-03-09 2.138160 4.347136 8.101785 14.641791 25.348500 41.679173 67.787965
2025-03-16 1.856152 4.000302 7.810309 14.699357 26.347064 44.605850 74.510152
2025-03-23 1.607871 3.669641 7.495304 14.666073 27.168492 47.280386 80.973695
2025-03-30 1.329488 3.227191 6.914532 14.092831 27.015602 48.366215 84.974576
2025-04-06 1.162941 2.982875 6.666483 14.079406 27.800335 50.996287 91.565224
2025-04-13 1.011600 2.748021 6.413872 14.045258 28.573026 53.705853 98.540656
2025-04-20 0.956710 2.723284 6.581843 14.834911 30.900014 59.201548 110.477254
2025-04-27 0.889999 2.657729 6.654727 15.440544 32.928132 64.296969 122.008123
2025-05-04 0.836007 2.613286 6.765680 16.130063 35.160511 69.872893 134.645064
2025-05-11 0.736922 2.431669 6.546443 16.106916 36.007607 73.011298 143.183751
2025-05-18 0.621177 2.178438 6.124899 15.600990 35.850486 74.296728 148.489157
2025-05-25 0.515833 1.928337 5.670720 14.965563 35.365387 74.922568 152.610520
2025-06-01 0.457596 1.804965 5.509283 14.969187 36.189247 78.047368 161.427803
2025-06-08 0.408892 1.699832 5.378598 15.027877 37.128069 81.436150 170.886699
2025-06-15 0.362199 1.589476 5.217263 14.993950 37.859474 84.452357 179.777822
2025-06-22 0.301708 1.413864 4.849071 14.409574 37.328373 84.927568 183.839122